PH Midterm Poll Results: Prelude to Change or Crisis?
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Filipinos going out to vote (Source: France 24)
The political weather had already begun to turn red-hot in the run-up with the break-up of the President Marcos Jr.-Vice President Sara Duterte UniTeam, which was forged for the 2022 national election.
Vice President Sara Duterte and President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. (Source: GMA News)
The rift opened up with the resignation of Duterte from her concurrent position as Secretary of Education in September after reports surfaced of office’s alleged misuse of confidential funds. The majority of the House of Representatives later approved an impeachment complaint against her for the allegedly corrupt use of P612.5-million in confidential funds, culpable violation of the Constitution, and betrayal of public trust. The Philippine Senate, sitting as an impeachment court, will start her trial in July this year.
The break-up turned irreconcilable on March 11 this year when former president Rodrigo Duterte was arrested upon his arrival in Manila from Hong Kong and flown to The Hague to face charges of crimes against humanity before the International Criminal Court (ICC).
The Duterte camp claims that the former president was “kidnapped” and hurriedly flown to The Hague even as the ICC had no jurisdiction as then- President Duterte had officially withdrawn from the Rome Statute on March 17, 2018, which became effective only one year later. But the ICC insists that it retains jurisdiction over his case involving the alleged crimes committed in the Philippines while it was still a State Party to the Statute, from November 1, 2011, to March 16, 2019.
Former President Rodrigo Duterte and Former Executive Secretary Salvador Medialdea aboard a private plane bound for the Hague in the Netherlands for his trial at the International Criminal Court (Source: Wikipedia).
What’s at Stake
The midterm polls involved more than 18,000 positions, from 12 seats in the Senate to more than 300 members of the House of Representatives. A total of 156 party-list groups certified by the Commission on Elections competed for 63 seats in the lower chamber of Congress.
At the local level, voters elected 82 governors and vice governors, 840 members of the Sangguniang Panlalawigan (Provincial Boards), 149 city mayors and vice mayors, and 1,493 municipal mayors and vice mayors.
Also at stake were 1,690 seats for Sangguniang Panglungsod members and 11,948 for Sangguniang Bayan members. In other words, the May 12 midterm polls opened the prospect of top-to-bottom change in the country’s political system. That is, if the electorate would vote for honest and competent candidates and reject the corrupt and incompetent ones.
But did it?
Referendum
The 2025 midterms are considered a referendum on the past three years in office of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. It is also a litmus test of the political future of Vice President Sara Duterte. It is the battle for the Senate, however, that carries major implications for Duterte’s 2028 presidential bid and the nation’s future.
The results of the senatorial race leave many wondering whether the odds favor the Duterte’s acquittal. She needs only eight senators to acquit her, and 16 to convict. With acquittal she could spend the next three years preparing for 2028 when she looms as a strong contender because of the family’s political clout in the Davao Region and the rest of Mindanao. Once in the highest elective position, she is likely to follow her father’s mailed-fist policy and brook no dissent. On the other hand, if she is convicted and removed from office, she cannot run for any other public office in the future.
Surveys vs. Actual Results
The spectacular showing of Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan, who were among the top six among winning senatorial candidates came as a total surprise.
Newly-elected Senators Kiko Pangilinan (left) and Bam Aquino with Mayor-elect Leni Robredo during the campaign period (Source: Inquirer.net)
A final survey before the elections by Octa Research, considered one of three reputable polling firms, (the others being Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia) showed PDP-Laban senatorial candidate Bong Go and ACT-CIS Rep. Erwin Tulfo statistically tied in first place. Octa’s April survey also showed Go and Tulfo neck-and-neck.
Others projected winners were former senator Vicente Sotto III, Sen. Bato dela Rosa, TV personality Ben Tulfo, Sen. Pia Cayetano, Sen. Ramon Revilla, Makati Mayor Abby Binay, Sen. Lito Lapid, former senator Ping Lacson, Camille Villar and independent candidate Willie Revillame.
Also competing for a spot in the Magic 12 were former Sen. Manny Pacquiao, Sen. Imee Marcos, Benhur Abalos, Sagip party-list Rep. Rodante Marcoleta, and former Sen. Kiko Pangilinan.
But the polling firm also expected dramatic changes in the final result because of “ongoing volatility is influenced by several factors, including shifting voter preferences, and the impact of intensified local and social media campaigning, as well as the negotiations between senatorial candidates and networks of local politicians for access to command votes.”
This turned out to be true, as reflected in the most dramatic changes in the final result, which had oppositionists Bam Aquino in second place and Pangilinan in fifth place. Bong Go maintained the pole position, with the Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas (the administration slate) and the PDP-Laban slate (the Duterte faction) each getting five of their candidates in the winning column.
As for the party-list race, nobody predicted that Akbayan Citizens Action Party would take a commanding lead above with 2.75 million votes, allowing it to occupy three seats in the House of Representatives by July.
Dominance of Political Dynasties
The consolidation of political dynasties was a source of serious concern not only in the senatorial, party-list, and congressional races, but also in the provincial, city and municipal political contests.
An analysis of at least 1,600 names from the Commission on Elections’ (Comelec) official list of party-list nominees, for instance, reveals a strong pattern of familial ties within individual party-list groups. A study showed at least 93 of the 155 party-list groups—or about 60 percent—had two or more nominees who share either a surname or a middle name, suggesting possible family relationships. At least four groups have married couples among their official nominees.
Political dynasties exploiting the party-list system to entrench themselves has been a stark reality even if the 1987 Philippine Constitution is very clear: “The State shall guarantee equal access to opportunities for public service and prohibit political dynasties as may be defined by law.”
The problem lies in the lack of an enabling law prohibiting political dynasties. There have been efforts to file anti-dynasty laws, but none has gained momentum in recent years. Any proposed bill, after all, would have to go through the legislative process, which also involves members of political dynasties and clans.
But there are groups that have gone to the Supreme Court to seek help in compelling Congress to pass a law. On March 31, 2025, former Supreme Court Associate Justices Antonio Carpio and Conchita Carpio-Morales, along with former Comelec chair and Constitution framer Christian Monsod, filed a petition arguing that Congress is in violation of the Constitution by failing to enact an anti-dynasty law. This is the latest in a series of petitions dating back to 2012.
What should be done? What’s needed, according to political analysts, is a law that would enforce the constitutional provision banning political dynasties. Until then, Filipinos may have to continue to deal with the party-list system as another vehicle for traditional politicians to maintain power for as long as they can.
What Happens Now?
If senatorial frontrunners Bong Go (No. 1) and Bato de la Rosa (No. 3) are now probably whooping it up, their joy at getting a renewed mandate from their rabid supporters could instantly turn into grief in the weeks ahead: The ICC could issue arrest warrants and send them posthaste to The Hague, just like their father figure, former president Rodrigo Duterte.
Senators Bato de la Rosa and Bong Go (Source: ABS-Cbn)
That is a distinct possibility, according to Atty. Kristina Conti, Assistant to ICC Counsel, Sen. Bong Go served as a longtime aide-de-camp of Rodrigo Duterte when he was the Mayor of Davao City for 22 years and Chief Executive from 2026 to 2022. De la Rosa was the Chief, Philippine National Police from 2016 to 2019, when the drug war killings reached a crescendo and made the entire Philippines a killing field.
The officially acknowledged death toll under Oplan Tokhang and Operation Double Barrel implemented by the national police under Police Gen. de la Rosa is 6,400. But this figure is disputed by human right groups in the Philippines and abroad who insist that the actual death toll reach as many as 30,000.
How about Vice President Sara Duterte, who is said to have coined the term Oplan Tokhang to refer to the violent anti-illegal drugs campaign during her father’s term? Could Sara also be in the crosshairs of the ICC because of possible complicity in the brazen murders of alleged drug suspects during her term as Davao City Mayor?
Towards the Future
Do the results of the May 12 midterm elections represent a step forward or a step backward for the nation?
The return of Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan to the Senate is a significant development as it is seen to invigorate the opposition in the upper chamber of Congress. They will join Sen. Risa Hontiveros who has been doing the heavy lifting for the genuine opposition in the Senate.
At the House of Representatives, the presence of former senator and Justice Secretary Leila de Lima and human rights advocate Chel Diokno gives ample reason to hope that they can make a difference in the way our lawmakers think and act for the public good. They will be flanked in the House by Akbayan’s two other representatives, incumbent Rep. Perci Cendaña and Dadah Kiram Ismula. Joining them is newly elected Rep. Kaka Bag-ao of the island province of Dinagat (she is an Akbayan leader who ran as an independent).
The spectacular showing of Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan, who were among the top six among winning senatorial candidates came as a total surprise.
On the other hand, the continued dominance of political dynasties in the Senate, House of Representatives and leading positions at the local level leaves much to worry about unless the electorate becomes discerning and votes only for candidates who are honest and competent to handle the demands of public office.
There are interesting times ahead. The political situation could remain unstable as the two main power blocs compete for dominance in the 2028 presidential polls, with opposition forces watching in the wings and consolidating their ranks in the meantime.
[SIDEBAR]
Election-Related Violence
Free and fair elections are a hallmark of a vibrant and mature democracy. Violent and fraud-ridden polls, on the contrary, reflect an immature, perhaps even a distorted one. We probably take elections seriously, as we must. But it’s another thing when some candidates are willing to go to great lengths to win, even resorting to murder and mayhem, to reach the promise of golden riches and near-unlimited power in public office. Not a few candidates, including members of entrenched political families, would stop at nothing for this aim.
Take the case of Abra Province, a perennial election hotspot with 188,957 registered voters in 27 municipalities. In April, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) mulled placing the province under its control ahead of the May polls due to a reported surge in politically motivated violence that killed a number of candidates and supporters since 2024.
This came after a total of 23 shooting incidents were reported across the Cordillera from Jan. 12 to March 31, with 17 occurring in Abra. The death toll from election-related violence in Abra reached at least 11.
Meanwhile, in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), violence seems a regular feature of elections. Recall the Ampatuan massacre in November 2009 where 54 supporters of a rival candidate accompanied by a number of journalists were massacred by a political dynasty.
The day before the May 12 midterms, four followers of a candidate for mayor in Hadji Mohammad Ajul town in Basilan were killed in a gunfight with followers of a rival politician on Sunday morning, May 11, triggering widespread panic among residents in the island municipality.
Officials of the Army’s 101st Infantry Brigade, which has jurisdiction over the 11 towns and two cities in Basilan, said the two groups that figured in the gunfight in Barangay Langil in Hadji Mohammad Ajul were identified with the two rival candidates for mayor of the municipality.
Election Fraud
It’s not just violence that attended the 2025 midterm polls, but also fraud, including vote-buying. In Quezon City, a local anti-corruption organization filed a complaint against a former lawmaker and two candidates for councilor over their alleged "networking-style" vote-buying scheme.
Under the supposed vote-buying scheme, an individual was recruited as a leader and tasked to recruit eight other voters. The leader was paid P1,000 if his recruits were able to lure in eight other people. A witness who admitted to selling his vote and recruiting other individuals in the scheme expressed willingness to testify against the QC bets.
Vote-buying took various forms in other places. The distribution of government assistance, or ayuda, from the congressman or local chief executive let people bring home canned sardines, noodles, rice, and even soap and shampoo, all packed in plastic bags, in exchange for their votes. The Omnibus Election Code penalizes both the vote-buyer and vote-seller.
In March, the head of the Comelec’s Committee on Kontra Bigay, Commissioner Ernest Maceda, pointed out, “We have expanded our focus to include the misuse of state resources.” Comelec Chairman George Erwin Garcia said, distribution of financial assistance, like the Assistance to Individuals in Crisis Situation (AICS) and Ayuda para sa Kapos ang Kita Program (AKAP) is prohibited 10 days before election day, except for medical and burial assistance.
The ayuda given through AICS and AKAP was worth P1,000 to P10,000, depending on the assessment made by social workers. Likewise prohibited were payouts for the 4Ps and the Tulong Panghanapbuhay sa Ating Disadvantaged/Displaced Workers. sending money through digital or online banking transactions or any other mobile wallet applications shall constitute vote-buying, which carries a penalty of imprisonment of one year to six years.
Misogynism and Discrimination
The Comelec also took note of discriminatory remarks made by some candidates against women during their campaign sorties. The Comelec’s antidiscrimination task force issued five show-cause orders against four male candidates who were found to have made unsavory remarks about women. The poll body prohibits, among others, gender-based harassment, such as misogynistic and sexist slurs, as well as sexual jokes during any election-related activity, including campaigns. Prohibited acts during any election activity included espousing immoral doctrines, authoring obscene publications and exhibitions, and conducting indecent shows, racial discrimination, child abuse, and incitement or advocacy of national, racial or religious hatred that leads to the promotion of discrimination, hostility or violence.
Election offenses were punishable by imprisonment up to six years without probation, disqualification from public office, and deprivation of the right to vote.
Ernesto M. Hilario studied Political Science at the University of the Philippines and has worked for various government agencies, NGOs and mainstream media since 1978. He writes a regular column for the Manila Standard broadsheet and also works as a freelance writer-editor.
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