Marcos’ Year of Hits and Misses
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President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. at the World Economic Forum (Source: World Economic Forum | Photo by Ciaran McCrickard)
The year 2023 was one of challenges for the administration in the economic, political/foreign policy, and social spheres. As it enters a new year, it can rightfully claim clear accomplishments in governance, but must also surmount difficulties that stand in the way of progress in the arduous task of nation-building.
The Economy
In Marcos’ mid-2022 inaugural speech, he said his next six years would focus on achieving real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of between 6.5 to 8 percent and reducing the country’s poverty rate to 9 percent by 2028.
The Philippine Development Plan for 2023-2028, approved in January 2023 and the roadmap for the country’s economic recovery and growth aims to “bring back the country to a high growth trajectory” and "enable economic and social transformation for a prosperous, inclusive, and resilient society."
The Plan is anchored on "AmBisyon Natin 2040," the guide for development planning from 2016-2040 to attain a "matatag, maginhawa at panatag na buhay (resilient, convenient, and tranquil life)." It is consistent with the administration’s 8-Point Socioeconomic Agenda, which seeks to "reinvigorate job creation and accelerate poverty reduction while addressing the issues brought by the Covid-19 pandemic." The Plan, Marcos emphasized, “will facilitate the coordination and the alignment of all departments and all agencies in government to a single plan so that we are all working in the same direction."
According to its economic managers, the country is one of the best performing economies among Southeast Asian nations, posting gross domestic product growth of 5.9 percent in the third quarter, outpacing its neighbors in Asia such as Vietnam (5.3 percent), Indonesia and China (4.9 percent), Malaysia (3.3 percent) and Singapore (0.7 percent).
For Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan, who is also Director General of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), “We have done well…we have remained among the top economic performers in Asia,” noting that this came despite multilateral agencies’ downgraded forecast for practically every country.
Together with Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno, Balisacan is optimistic that the Philippines can post a full-year economic growth close to the government’s growth assumptions of 6 to 7 percent for 2023 with easing inflation, strong labor market conditions, and robust consumer spending, especially during the holiday season.
The positive economic outlook for 2024 would be accurate if, as reported by the Department of Trade and Industry, Marcos’ various foreign trips during the year generated total investment pledges of P4 trillion ($72 billion) would boost economic activity. How much of that staggering amount would actually translate to investments on the ground, however, remains to be seen.
The administration claims it has been able to tame inflation to 4.1 percent in November, lower than the eight percent posted in the same month last year and the 4.9 percent registered in October this year.
Meanwhile, unemployment fell to 4.2 percent in October from the 4.5 percent in the same month last year based on the Philippine Statistics Authority’s latest Labor Force Survey. According to National Statistician Dennis Mapa, the number of unemployed Filipinos went down to 2.09 million from 2.24 million in October 2022.
Marcos has emphasized that his administration remains committed to supporting current and prospective investors by amending existing laws to further open the economy to foreign investments. Among these initiatives are the Foreign Investments Act, Retail Trade Liberalization Act, Public Service Act and the Renewable Energy Act, which aim to attract more foreign investors in telecommunications, port operations, transportation, and clean energy sectors.
In February, Marcos issued EO 18, directing the establishment of green lanes for strategic investments in all government agencies. The government has also revised the implementing rules and regulations of the Build-Operate-Transfer law to improve the financial viability of public private partnership or PPP projects. He said he wants to make it easier for private investors to engage in infrastructure projects.
In July, Marcos signed the Maharlika Investment Fund Act of 2023, creating the Philippines’ first-ever sovereign wealth fund that will support the administration’s economic goals. He appointed Rafael Consing Jr. as president and chief executive officer of the Maharlika Investment Corp., which will manage the fund. Marcos and his economic managers are confident that the Maharlika Investment Fund would promote fiscal stability through strategic and profitable investments in key sectors.
On the sidelines of Marcos’ attendance at the 50th anniversary of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-Japan relations in Tokyo in early December, he issued Executive Order 49 creating the Office of the Special Assistant to the President for Investment and Economic Affairs. This office aims to ensure the effective integration, coordination and implementation of the various government investment and economic policies and programs. It is headed by Presidential Adviser on Investment and Economic Affairs Frederick Go, who will have the rank of Cabinet secretary and tasked to provide the President “timely, relevant and strategic advice on economic matters and concerns, including among others, inflation, food security and the increasing prices of key commodities.” Can Frederick Go as “Super Secretary” make a difference in the way the Philippine economy fares in 2024 and beyond? It remains to be seen.
As the year was about to end, Marcos signed the P5.768-trillion national budget for 2024. This budget is equivalent to 21.1 percent of the country’s gross domestic product. During the budget signing at Malacañang, he said the 2024 national appropriation is the government’s “battle plan” to address poverty, illiteracy, and the challenges besetting food security, health, employment, and national security. Among the sectors allowed greater allocation in 2024 are transportation, defense, and education.
The Political Situation
Marcos captured the Philippine presidency in 2022 with 31 million votes against the 15 million votes of his nearest rival, former Vice President Leni Robredo. His vice-presidential candidate, former Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte, the daughter of Rodrigo Duterte, the former president, won with even more votes. The tandem ran under what they called “UniTeam,” to emphasize that the unity of all political forces was vital if the government would make big inroads in creating more jobs, reducing corruption, and uplifting the lives of those now living in abject poverty, particularly in the countryside.
Former President Rodrigo Duterte and Vice President Sara Duterte (Source: Philippine News Agency)
With the new administration already in place, however, it wasn’t long before cracks appeared in the unity of the top leadership. We witnessed the realignment of political forces in the country, with various political parties and groups gravitating toward the ruling political coalition led by the administration party, the Partido Federal ng Pilipinas (PFP), for their political survival. With the 2025 midterm elections for national and local officials on the horizon, those seeking to become public officials or to remain in power need to obtain the support of the ruling political coalition.
UniTeam Unravels
The much-vaunted UniTeam of President Bongbong Marcos and Vice President and concurrent Education Secretary Sara Duterte began to unravel this year on three issues: confidential and intelligence funds, the ICC investigation of Rodrigo Duterte’s bloody war on drugs, and the administration’s plan to resume peace talks with National Democratic Front, the political arm of the Communist Party of the Philippines and its military component, the New People’s Army.
The controversy over secret funds surfaced when Sara Duterte asked Congress for a total of P650 million in confidential and intelligence funds for 2024 for the two offices she headed. But the House of Representatives led by Speaker Martin Romualdez refused to grant her request after it was found that she spent P125 million in confidential funds in just 11 days in the last quarter of 2022. Amid public clamor for a stop to such confidential and intelligence funds by agencies not directly involved in national security, Vice President Duterte said all those opposed to secret funds were “enemies of the state.” This remark outraged legislators, with Congress passing the proposed 2024 budget sans the secret funds requested by the Office of the Vice President and the Education department.
Speaker Martin Romualdez and President Marcos, Jr. at the U.N. General Assembly (Source: Speaker’s office | Manila Bulletin)
The rift between the Marcos-Romualdez and Sara /Rodrigo Duterte camps also became pronounced over the issue of allowing the International Criminal Court to come over and investigate allegations of crimes against humanity against former president Rodrigo Duterte. It was under his administration that the police officially recorded over 6,000 deaths of suspected drug traffickers and users because they had “fought back” when about to be arrested. But human rights groups in the Philippines and abroad are saying that most of the deaths were extrajudicial killings by the police and vigilante groups protected by law enforcers themselves and insist that between 20,000 to 30,000 were killed in Rodrigo Duterte’s bloody war on illegal drugs from 2016 to mid-2022.
Marcos initially said his administration did not want the ICC to get testimonies from the families of victims in the Philippines. But lately the government position has changed, with some officials saying that there are no legal impediments for the ICC to enter the country and conduct a full-blown investigation of Rodrigo Duterte and even Sara Duterte, who was already the mayor of Davao City where many suspected drug traffickers were killed under suspicious circumstances.
Another source of friction between Marcos and Sara Duterte is the issue of granting amnesty to former and current members of the NPA and other rebel groups. VP Duterte apparently wants the government to finish off the NPA which the Armed Forces of the Philippine now claims is down to 1,000 regulars from its peak of 25,000 in the 1980s. She has also been very vocal in opposing the planned restart of peace talks with the CPP-NPA-NDF, thus putting her on a collision course with Marcos.
Another issue that could tear apart the already fragile relations between Marcos and the Dutertes is the recent release on bail by a Muntinlupa Court of former Senator Leila de Lima after seven years in jail. De Lima believes the three court cases filed against her during the previous administration were all trumped-up and had no basis in fact except to silence her. She has been cleared in two of the three cases, with the third likely to be thrown out as well as the witnesses who implicated her in the alleged crime of conspiracy to commit drug trafficking have all recanted their testimonies. De Lima has since been very vocal in condemning the human rights situation in the country and has vowed to get back at Rodrigo Duterte for the rank injustice she suffered under his six-year authoritarian regime.
During the presidential campaign in 2021-22, Marcos decided to run under the auspices of a little-known political party, the Partido Federal ng Pilipinas, which, as the name suggests, wants to change the 1987 Constitution to transform current presidential system to a federal one. But the PFP has been silent on the issue thus far and Marcos himself appears in no hurry nor inclined to transition to a federal system at this point. The Charter change issue, however, could again take center stage particularly if those who believe that its restrictive economic provisions prevent the country from getting more foreign investments for sustained economic development.
Independent Foreign Policy?
A Filipino fisherman watches a Chinese Coast Guard vessel patrol the area in Scarborough Shoal (Source: Erik De Castro | Reuters)
The Marcos administration emphasized early on that it would pursue an independent foreign policy as provided in the 1987 Constitution. Marcos has repeatedly said that our foreign policy should be governed by one cardinal rule: “Friend to all, enemy to none.” But that cardinal rule has been tested in practice in relations with China on the South China Sea issue.
The Philippines won its case before the Permanent Arbitral Tribunal in The Hague against China’s occupation of parts of the vital sealane where we have our 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea or Unclos.
But China refuses to recognize this ruling and insists on ownership of practically the whole of the South China Sea where it has built artificial islands with military fortifications and regularly harasses Philippine Coast Guard vessels conducting routine patrols in the country’s Exclusive Economic Zone.
While the tense situation in the West Philippine Sea could get out of hand if not properly managed through dialogue and consultation, instead of gunboat diplomacy and bullying by Beijing.
Before leaving for a state visit to China in January this year, Marcos described bilateral ties as entering a “new chapter.” The description is appropriate in so far as China will now have to deal with the Marcos administration under changed circumstances. The previous Duterte administration cozied up to Beijing early on, even as the Chinese have been obstinate in refusing to recognize the 2016 ruling of the Permanent Arbitral Tribunal in the Hague favoring the Philippines in the maritime dispute in the South China Sea.
It’s going to be a “new chapter” indeed if President Marcos can convince China to stop its aggressive actions in the vital sealane. These include what appears to be the “swarming strategy” of the Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia in preventing the Philippine Coast Guard and fishermen from entering those areas claimed by China under its “ten-dash line” demarcation.
While it is true that the territorial and maritime disputes in the SCS do not constitute the sum total of the two countries’ bilateral ties, they pose a significant obstacle to further strengthening cooperation in various fields. There is a brisk two-way trade with China at present. The previous administration obtained pledges of a reported $24 billion for various projects, but it appears that only an insignificant amount actually came in.
Beijing has said it is willing to provide loans for various infrastructure projects under its Official Development Assistance (ODA) program and has been extending humanitarian assistance in emergency situations. China also helped immensely during the Covid-19 pandemic by giving access to their vaccines since 2021. But would the good aspects of bilateral relations with China offset the bad brought by the South China Sea issue?
The Social Situation
As pointed out earlier, the Philippine Development Plan for 2023-2028 targets the reduction of poverty incidence in the country to single digit level by the time the Marcos administration leaves office in 2028.
Reducing poverty incidence will require a whole-of-nation approach, not just the efforts of one, two or several departments, but the whole of government and the people it is supposed to serve.
But let us focus on six components that impact on the poverty situation in the country.
Social Amelioration: The Department of Social Work and Development (DSWD) now headed by Secretary Rex Gatchalian is at the forefront of efforts to alleviate the plight of the poor, low-income and disadvantaged sectors in society through various programs numbering no less than 22 as shown on their website. These programs include cash and other assistance to victims of natural disasters, such as typhoons, and addressing violence against women and children. For next year, the DSWD budget is P210 billion.
Education: The Department of Education is now headed by Vice President Sara Duterte in a concurrent capacity. She had wanted to be appointed as Secretary of National Defense, but Marcos apparently decided that the Defense portfolio should be handled by someone with previous experience in the field. Hence, Marcos gave her an equally challenging job as head of DepEd. Here, she must oversee the implementation of the government’s K-to-12 basic education program from Kindergarten to Senior High School that would prepare young Filipinos for college or even immediate employment in certain areas. And she must begin to show results in 2024 that her department is making significant headway in education reforms that would address disheartening findings of surveys on global education that Filipino students are way behind their counterparts in the Southeast Asian region in reading comprehension and math skills partly because of COVID-19. The pandemic kept students in distance learning mode rather than attending face-to-face classes for three years. DepEd allowed educational institutions to automatically promote students to the next grade level even without clear proof that they had passed the academic requirements.
Health: Now that the COVID-19 pandemic is largely over, the Department of Health is focusing on other health problems, such as diseases that account for the most deaths annually. It was only in the middle of this year that a new Secretary of Health was appointed: Dr. Teodoro Herbosa. With a new leadership, the DOH will operate in 2024 with a total budget of P22.98 billion for the improvement of the country’s health facilities and services. But this budget seems to be woefully inadequate to meet the health and medical needs of the poor and disadvantaged sectors. The DOH clearly needs to be allotted more resources so it can deliver on the constitutional mandate for government to achieve health for all.
Mass Housing: The Department of Human Settlements and Urban Development (DHSUD), led by Secretary Jerry Acuzar, must meet the marching order from the President to build one million housing units every year or 6 million until 2028 for the poor and low-income sectors. Can it achieve these targets? This will require close collaboration with private sector developers and sufficient financial resources due to the high cost of building materials at present.
Overseas Filipinos Workers: The newly created Department of Migrant Workers (DMW) has the mandate to protect the rights and welfare of no less than 10 million OFWs spread out in the four corners of the globe. In 2023, its concerns included repatriating Filipinos from the Gaza because of the ongoing Israel-Hamas War. Apart from rescuing OFWs in conflict areas, the department must also regular hold dialogues with foreign governments to ensure that our fellow Filipinos get what is due them in terms of decent salaries and good working conditions.
Overseas Filipino Workers repatriated from Israel (Source: Department of Migrant Workers | CNN Philippines)
Disaster response: This is the responsibility of the Office of Civil Defense (OCD), an attached agency of the Department of National Defense (DND), as well as the multi-agency National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC). The OCD and NDRRMC are responsible for sending timely warnings to the public on the approach of typhoons that batter the country on a regular basis and sometimes cause widespread death and massive destruction of homes and infrastructure. There’s pending legislation seeking to create a separate department that will handle all concerns related to disaster response, but there’s no clear indication at this point that it’s a priority of the Marcos administration.
Toward the Future
If 2023 was a year of hits and misses for the Marcos administration, it stands to reason that it should approach 2024 and the years beyond with even greater resolve to do better.
In the economic sphere, the benefits of economic growth should directly benefit those in the lower rungs of society. Inclusive growth should be the goal of economic policies and programs, so that nobody is left behind. Easier said than done, to be sure, but there's no harm in trying.
In the political sphere, there should be genuine efforts to crack down on corruption that diverts already scarce resources for vital infrastructure and social services such as education, health and mass housing to private pockets.
In the social sphere, equally important is to achieve social harmony by narrowing the sharp divide between the rich and the poor in our society through comprehensive anti-poverty measures and stop-gap measures such as cash assistance to the poor in really trying times, such as natural disasters.
Reforms across all areas of endeavor may be called for amid the decline in pro-administration sentiment among Filipinos, from 50 percent in the third quarter of 2022 to 46 percent in the same period in 2023, according to the Pahayag End of Year survey conducted by PUBLiCUS Asia, Inc.
The non-commissioned survey results, released on December 28, said anti-administration sentiment remained “stable” at 18 percent while those adopting a neutral stance increased from 30 percent to 36 during the same period.
Economic concerns, including price inflation, joblessness, low wages, and a perceived lack of productivity, emerged as driving factors behind the changing political landscape, the survey said.
The Marcos Jr. administration now stands at a crucial crossroads: it must learn valuable lessons from the mistakes of the past so that it can chart a better future for all Filipinos and the nation as a whole in 2024 and even beyond.
Ernesto M. Hilario studied Political Science at the University of the Philippines and has worked for various government agencies, NGOs and mainstream media since 1978. He writes a regular column for the Manila Standard broadsheet and also works as a freelance writer-editor.
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